The Supreme Court
If Justice Alito or Thomas retires under pressure and is replaced by a younger conservative, a conservative majority is locked in for a very long time. The Senate decides who gets confirmed.
Deadline: August 10. Montana has days — not weeks — to avoid handing a Senate seat to the Trump-endorsed Republican.
The ask is simple: Democratic nominee Alani Bankhead withdraws before the deadline, so independent Seth Bodnar can face Republican Kurt Alme head-to-head — the only matchup the polls say is winnable.
There are three candidates in this race: Trump-endorsed Republican Kurt Alme, Democratic nominee Alani Bankhead, and independent Seth Bodnar. If all three stay in, Bankhead and Bodnar split the Democratic and independent vote — and Alme wins by double digits.
Head-to-head is a different story. Across an average of recent polls, Bankhead loses to Alme by about 11 points one-on-one. Bodnar is roughly tied with him.
The only scenario in which Alme can be beaten is a Bankhead withdrawal before August 10. That isn't a knock on her — it's what the numbers say.
There is one path to victory, and only one candidate on it. Don’t take our word for it — flip a candidate off the ballot and watch where their voters go.
Illustrative simulation built from an average of recent statewide polls (three-way and head-to-head matchups); vote transfers are estimates. Remaining share is undecided. This is a model, not a prediction. Full toplines (PDF)
Montana voted for Trump by 20 points. In the last fifteen years, a non-incumbent Democrat has won a regular federal election in territory this red exactly once — Heidi Heitkamp in North Dakota, 2012 — out of more than a thousand opportunities, even counting the 2018 blue wave.
One Democratic win in a thousand tries. Independents beat that baseline over and over.
Given a direct matchup against a Republican, independents consistently outrun what a Democrat could do. Dan Osborn outperformed Kamala Harris by 14 points in Nebraska. Evan McMullin in Utah and Cara Mund in North Dakota did the same. Combine that independent advantage with a favorable national environment, and Bodnar isn't a long shot — he's genuinely competitive against Alme.
Republicans are narrow favorites to hold the chamber, with Democrats on track to fall short by one seat. Montana is the seat that changes that — and Senate control matters more right now than it has in a long time.
If Justice Alito or Thomas retires under pressure and is replaced by a younger conservative, a conservative majority is locked in for a very long time. The Senate decides who gets confirmed.
After this June's Trump v. Slaughter ruling, the president may fire most independent agency heads at will. With removal protections gone, Senate confirmation is the main remaining check on who runs federal agencies and sits on the federal bench.
There are 70 Senate seats in states bluer than Montana. Proving that a strong independent can win where a Democrat can't is how the pro-democracy coalition expands the map for 2028 — win or lose here.
Seth Bodnar is a West Point graduate, Army veteran, and Rhodes Scholar who served as president of the University of Montana — a job he resigned in order to run for this seat. He qualified for the November ballot by petition.
He is backed by former Democratic Senators Jon Tester and Max Baucus.
Under Montana law, a candidate can't withdraw once there are fewer than 85 days until the election. Count back 85 days from November 3, and the last day Alani Bankhead can withdraw is August 10.
A retired Air Force lieutenant colonel with twenty-one years of service, including work as a counterintelligence special agent and human-intelligence operator with special operations. She later worked as a federal special agent on child exploitation and trafficking cases. She won the June Democratic primary with roughly 48,000 votes. Her record and her service are not in question here — the math of a three-way race is.
She has publicly said she won't: “I absolutely would never consider dropping out. Over 48,000 people voted for me; zero people voted for him… I'm not going to disrespect the vote of those 48,000 Montanans because of a decision that he made.” She has also said she would only drop out “if God strikes her with a lightning bolt.”
Candidates often hold this line right up until they don't — President Biden said much the same in 2024 before withdrawing. Public positions can change when the people a candidate trusts make the case. That's why the deadline matters.
From May 14 to June 30, Bodnar raised over $1.1 million and Alme about $800,000. Bankhead reported just under $35,000 in her most recent filing. Winning a Montana Senate race on that budget — down 11 head-to-head — is not a realistic path.
That's disputed. A group of election attorneys has written to the Montana Democratic Party detailing the case that the party is not required to name a replacement. Local news covered the dispute this week. [LINK: news segment] [LINK: attorneys' letter to MDP]
[VERIFY WITH ELECTION LAWYER BEFORE PUBLISHING — plain-language explanation of Montana withdrawal/replacement law with the MCA citation.]
[NAME THE SPONSORING ENTITY PLAINLY — organization/individuals and a contact email. Anonymous campaigns backfire; a named sponsor is both legally required and more persuasive.]